Terzić's Tenuous Tenure: Is Dortmund's coach on the brink?

I’m back from my week away and it’s been quite a week. Dortmund have a new deadline day signing but it seems the same old problems. Let’s get into it…

It has been an emotional time in and around Dortmund. The first game in the post-Lowe era of the German national team was held on Tuesday with Rudi Voller, Hannes Wolf and Sandro Wagner taking charge of the team following the dismissal of coach Hansi Flick in the wake of the 4-1 defeat to Japan last Friday. The Japan result and performance was the final nail in the coffin for Jogi Lowe’s former assistant and Champions League winning coach, Flick and he was sacked on Sunday. The players sent their outgoing coach a clear message by beating France 2-1. If you want to experience a taste of how his methods failed to resonate with the German players, then watch the recent “All or Nothing” series on Amazon Prime which covers the national team’s short-lived World Cup campaign in Qatar.

Spoilers: it was nothing.

Dortmund fans are familiar with football crises, because of the recent decline in results and performances of their men’s team. The last match before the international break at local rivals Bochum was always going to be a challenge. Bochum are a limited but stubborn side and in front of a packed derby crowd would relish their role as underdogs. After the drama of this fixture, last season, the players should have known what to expect and been ready for the challenge, meeting derby heat with the cool professionalism that comes with having the better players. Sadly, for Dortmund, that did not happen, and the game finished 1-1.

Coach Edin Terzić demanded a response from the players. Press reports from the dressing room seemed to confirm that the players knew they needed to improve and that there was a perfect opportunity to do so at home to newly promoted Heidenheim who had yet to trouble the Bundesliga table scorers so far this season.

But it was another day of profound disappointment for Borussia Dortmund. Football fans around the world are all the same in one respect: if they see carelessness or lack of commitment from the players, they will make sure they let the players know how they feel. At the end of the game, the message from the supporters was clear: That was way short of what is needed. The game finished 2-2 against a Heidenheim side who played with courage for which they were rewarded.

After the game, the squad split for the international break. Sometimes this can be a welcome break and allow everyone a chance to breathe. But the lack of games can also create a vacuum for unhappy narratives to take hold. Once again, stories are circulating about how the players are aware that their level of performance is not good enough and needs to change. The inference is that the players themselves need to improve. But it’s possible that the players (at least the ones talking to Bild) are saying that the change needs to come elsewhere, i.e., the coach.

In my last newsletter, I argued that Edin Terzić should remain as coach and because of his relationship with Han Joachim Watzke, the CEO and Sporting Director, Sebastian Kehl, he probably will stay. It is said that Watzke is in favour of appointing Julian Nagelsmann as national team coach. The highly rated coach would also be considered as a potential replacement for Terzić should he be fired. This is assuming BVB were willing to pay out the rest of Nagelsmann’s contract with Bayern Munich who still have him on the payroll despite relieving him of his duties earlier this year. If Watzke, as Vice President of the DFB want Nagelsmann for the national team, it is reasonable to assume that he is not thinking about replacing the head coach as Nagelsmann would surely be the most suitable candidate, although as with all things football, that is disputed.

All of this leads me to believe that Terzić will stay for now. But if the team continue to play poorly then his position will become increasingly untenable. I would not be at all surprised if he was gone in time for the October international break unless performances improve immediately, starting with Freiburg on Saturday.

If Dortmund is a squall of chaos, then Freiburg is an oasis of calm by comparison. With their solid recruitment and well-organised youth system the Black Forest club are the very picture of consistency. Under coach Christian Streich, who has been in charge since 2011, Freiburg have become one of the best teams in the Bundesliga. This is a remarkable achievement given their relatively modest support but is no fluke and any punching above their weight narrative should be dispelled. Their success is built upon firm foundations.

Part of their success comes from a refusal to panic. This is just as well since they got humped 5-0 at Stuttgart before the break. So, it turns out that both sets of players will be expected to produce a response which adds some extra spice to this fixture. Looking at Freiburg’s results we can see that both their wins were narrow (a 2-1 against Hoffenheim and a very late 1-0 win over Werder). Coupled with the 5-0 defeat I think there is enough there for Dortmund to feel confident to get a result, assuming the players can produce.

The last time Dortmund travelled to the Europa-Park Stadion they beat their host 3-1. That was back in August when Borussia were getting their early season groove on. Prior to that, their last away victory was in 2019. It should be said that Dortmund have won the last three games against Freiburg, putting 13 goals passed Die Breisgauer, in the process.

Unfortunately, it looks like deadline day signing Niclas Füllkrug will be missing after he picked up an injury while on international duty. This is a moderate embuggerance given that the former Werder player and last season’s joint Bundesliga top scorer could really use the minutes to get settled into the team.

Curiously the bookies are favouring the away side for this game. This may be due to recent head-to-head results but in view of recent form, I’d be cautious when putting money on a favourable outcome for Dortmund, if I were you. If you must have a flutter, look at the markets for the number of goals scored.  I suspect we’ll see a few on Saturday.

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